How do you decide what project to pursue next?

I would look at

• how well do you know the space? It is much easier if you have contacts, if you know what is critical in a particular market?

• do you work on a project to solve a personal frustration? If so, it is much more likely to solve a problem for which there is no good solution yet.

• is the market growing? If the tide is rising, it is much easier to grow with it.

• finally, how well can you explain the idea? The easier it is to explain, the less difficult it will be to convince people to join you, to beta test, to buy.

Good luck

Let us know what you will come up with

Roland

Best post I've seen on the topic (from Ev Williams) is here:

http://evhead.com/2007/12/how-to-evaluate-new-product-idea.asp

I don’t know if Evan put it first on purpose, but I tend to think that tractability is the most important factor by an order of magnitude. Why? Because there is a pretty good chance that what you think you’re going to build and what you go to market with are radically different. Take a few minutes and ponder this outstanding quote from Fred Wilson’s “Why Early Stage Investments Fail” post:

“…Of the 26 companies that I consider realized or effectively realized in my personal track record, 17 of them made complete transformations or partial transformations of their businesses between the time we invested and the time we sold. That means there a 2/3 chance you’ll have to significantly reinvent your business between the time you take a venture capital investment and when you exit your business.”

Another great quote:

“My friend Dick Costolo, co-founder of FeedBurner, describes a startup as the process of going down lots of dark alleys only to find that they are dead ends. Dick describes the art of a successful deal as figuring out they are dead ends quickly and trying another and another until you find the one paved with gold.”

Given that you have a 2/3 chance of having to reinvent your business (or, as Costolo would put it– you have a 2/3 chance of your first dark alley being a dead end), what could possibly be more important that tractability?

Of course, there's the passion argument. If there's something you REALLY WANT TO EXIST IN THE WORLD (which is different from something that you think you'd enjoy building), then you might want to chase that, tractability be damned.

Nobody should be able to tell you what to pursue next. There are so many variables in this decision process. If there are obvious winner ideas, you would not be posting here. If there are several seemingly equal ones -- which one you feel more passionate about? There will be ups and downs along the way, which idea would you be willing to hang on to?

;)