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This question is a bit of an abstract thought experiment, so if you do not like such things I encourage you to stop reading.

I tend to have no intuition on the profit and revenue of internet companies, and being able to make close to accurate estimations helps greatly, and I think is a useful skill. In particular, lets focus on Stack Exchange Inc. How could we come up with fair estimate for their revenue?

I realize that a question similar to this has been asked before: See http://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/55790/how-does-stack-overflow-meta-stack-overflow-etc-make-money and also see How does StackOverflow and sites like Quora make money? but these are not my questions. I am not looking for "general ideas," but rather a concrete Fermi-problem like computation.

Available Data: Here are some things I found in about 15 minutes of searching:

Employees: Looking at the team page: http://stackexchange.com/about/team there seem to be approximately 50 full time employees. This means that personal costs are at least fairly large.

Funding: I found this article: http://techcrunch.com/2011/03/08/stack-overflow/ which says that the company has received around 18 million dollars in funding.

Visits per day: On this page http://stackexchange.com/about it says that they have 1.3 million users, and 3.2 million visits per day, which would mean approximately 1.17 billion visits per year.

Jobs and Employers: From what I see, it appears that job postings, and employers searching for jobs is the major source of revenue: http://careers.stackoverflow.com/faq#employers with a yearly subscription costing 5000 dollars.
On the careers page, it says there are about 5000 candidates actively looking for a job, and 18000 others who don't mind being contacted.

Questions:

(1) I never see any advertisements on Stack Exchange, is there still a way for a company to make revenue from visits alone without having ads?

(2) Is it safe to assume that job postings are the sole source of revenue for Stack Exchange? If not, what else could contribute?

(3) How could we go about estimating the revenue? Based on the amount of funding alone, what would expect?

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Stackoverflow.com has ads. – Kekito Nov 9 '11 at 22:48
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You could probably just ask Joel Spolsky and Jeff Atwood about their models they are fairly open about it all ... or go through the back catalog of the Stackexchange podcasts (link at the bottom of the page). – Robin Vessey Nov 9 '11 at 22:58
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I think the point here isn't to ask Joel or Jeff, but to formulate a method to make such an evaluation. SE is just an example that we're all familiar with. – Flimzy Nov 12 '11 at 9:57
I don't think it's particularly accurate, but here and here are a couple of ideas for estimating revenue. In essence: number of employees multiplied by $100k. – Paul Filmer Nov 16 '11 at 8:48

1 Answer

Making money with ads is only one way StackExchange could monetize the site. There's a case study at stanford which describes 4 potential models for stack exchange:

http://www.stanford.edu/class/ee204/Publications/Finding%20a%20Growth%20Business%20Model%20at%20Stack%20Overflow.pdf

Sites like StackExchange and Quora optimize for getting everyone to use their site, because their type of site has a strong network effect: it becomes more valuable the more people are on it (like a telephone does). Optimizing for revenue too early screws up that adoption curve: company resources become diverted away from building the best service for users, and/or friction in usage is created (e.g. if the ads are too annoying).

Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc all did this -- NO revenue for a long time, just getting people to use the service. They still had very high valuations in fundraising because of their user base. And even today, Facebook is probably nowhere close squeezing the most revenue out of their users with ads, credits, etc.

These companies get valued on revenue potential : when they choose to turn on revenue sources, how much can they get?

Potential ARPU isn't easy to figure out: it depends on details of your sites' focus and audience. Case in point: Facebook has WAY more minutes of users' attention that Google, but Google has more revenue. That's because when someone searches is more valuable than when someone's just chatting with their friend.

So the potential ARPU isn't easy to figure out, and becomes a big point of discussion throughout the company's lifecycle. You look at analogies from other companies, look at how your user population spends money today and where you can insert yourself. Construct some hypotheses, test the hypotheses, then iterate.

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