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My company has proven technology to convert existing in use Heavy duty diesel engines to run on Natural Gas and pass current EPA/CARB emissions standards. This makes us a unique provider of a unique product with high demand. Until we do the EPA/CARB certifications ( which cost % $250,000 per engine type) we cannot sell in the USA, but we have MOU/LOI from several fleets wanting to convert once the certification is issued which amount to $4 million in first year sales/$3 million in gross profit. Projected annual sales grow by 300% for the first two years. We are raising money to pay for these certifications ($2 million). Looking to determine pre value. Other methods- Comp sales are for Automotive conversion companies- $13 Million and $16 Million in 2010. Technology purchase cost- closest thing is Westport Innovations-T. Boone's company- $808 million Cap currently- has one engine certified, we will have 10. Any suggestions appreciated.

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2 Answers

Company valuations are very hard to make. The only true answer is "what someone else is willing to pay for them" ... but there is a few metrics you can use to judge it by:

  • How much would it take someone else existing large company to do it themselves? Including risk of projects failing and they don't have the right people etc ... plus the added costs of just being a big company ... if you factor all that in they might judge it easier to simply buy your company for $X
  • How much have you spent on it to date? How much will it take you to get to first sale? This is minimum amount sale unless its all gone wrong and your trying to back out and recoup some money.
  • How much can you practically make in 18 months to 2 years? This is a general metric I have seen used for a range of traditional businesses being sold.
  • Cost of stock, good will and special licenses, like the ones you have for the US.
  • Value of your contracts and ongoing revenues over 2 years and over 5 years.
  • Your buy out price ... mentally if someone was to offer you $20M would you sell? Y/N, ok ... what about $5M would you be happy then? ... be honest and keep going down until you think ... NAH its worth more than that. Now you know your own minimum mental level.

Pretty much you should calculate all of these and use them to triangulate a figure by something like the Average $figure + 1 standard deviation.

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I recommend that you do a 5-year full Income Statement projection (baseline model) for your business based on your certifications today. I am assuming you are successfully doing non-US-based business today. Once this is completed create scenarios off the baseline based on adding x number of US-based certifications. You will now know your valuation based on zero US certifications and x number of certifications. You should be able to use these valuations to determine how much value $x in investment adds to your bottom line. I am assuming additional certifications will be funded from both investor funds and profits. By completing this analysis you can determine your pre-money valuation.

Hope this helps.

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