I'm developing a product for creating software installers. Initially this was a hobby project; just prove to myself that I can acheive my technical goals writing this product. The product is available for free and I know there are several users because they are asking questions on my forum and through e-mail. The product has been downloaded about 1k times. It is now reaching its third version.
But I'm thinking of commercializing my product. The question is whether it will be profitable. I do have my local idea for profitability. I also have some statistics of downloads, site usage, number of questions from users, etc. How do I make my attempt at rough estimate of possible income if I charge for my product.
A bit more info that can be useful: platform is Windows/.NET/Visual Studio (excluding Express). Therefore most likely users of my product have some money. And if they do not (because they got their Windows/Visual Studio from MSDNAA/BizSpark) I can still give it away for free/at reduced price (possibly with some license restrictions).
So the bottom line is: how do I estimate my income?