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I'm developing a product for creating software installers. Initially this was a hobby project; just prove to myself that I can acheive my technical goals writing this product. The product is available for free and I know there are several users because they are asking questions on my forum and through e-mail. The product has been downloaded about 1k times. It is now reaching its third version.

But I'm thinking of commercializing my product. The question is whether it will be profitable. I do have my local idea for profitability. I also have some statistics of downloads, site usage, number of questions from users, etc. How do I make my attempt at rough estimate of possible income if I charge for my product.

A bit more info that can be useful: platform is Windows/.NET/Visual Studio (excluding Express). Therefore most likely users of my product have some money. And if they do not (because they got their Windows/Visual Studio from MSDNAA/BizSpark) I can still give it away for free/at reduced price (possibly with some license restrictions).

So the bottom line is: how do I estimate my income?

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Given that three are at least 3 very popular, very useful and FREE installer tools I would estimate you will make < $2000 per year. Is there a specific niche or weakness in the other tools that you address? If so, then I'd change my answer. Perhaps you can explain your tool or provide a link? – TimJ♦ Dec 23 '10 at 19:01
You will find my view of why it is better (for some specific users) than other tools here: sharpsetup.eu/… – TAG Dec 23 '10 at 19:27
Thanks for the link - It looks like a good idea/concept and product. – TimJ♦ Dec 24 '10 at 1:13
I think there is an opportunity in the Installers space. Visual Studio is discontinuing its Setup project and the alternative is the very limited InstallShield lite. If you want Custom Actions you must pay for a better edition which is too expensive IMHO. Make an installer for that (not script based, but as simple as VS Setup Projects) and price it near $100. I think you have a chance. – Nestor Sanchez A Feb 6 '12 at 2:21

2 Answers

up vote 4 down vote

As I understand your question, you have built a software installer for the desktop market and want to know how profitable it will be. Is that correct?

I have very bad news for you. You want to enter a very crowded niche market, with yet another installer. There are not many people/companies that need your product. There are lots of great products already out there that do what your product will do. And there are free products, like Inno Setup, that you have to compete with.

Let's assume you come up with a product that is better than everything else that is out there already. In that case your income is going to be limited by your ability to market your software and the fact that people have to invest signifigant time converting from what they are usingnow to your product.

Now assume that your product is at best equal to what's already out there. No matter how much you market, few people are going to invest the time and effort converting to your product when it is no better than what they are already using. And if they are using a free installer, they are not going to be willing to fork over money to you and convert, if you are just the same as what they are already using for free.

I don't think I have to analyze what happens if your product isn't as good as the existing ones.

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Thanks for your comments. I did a bit of research with regard to existing products and found that there is nothing similar on the market (I needed it as part of my work at BigCo). Is it the best? I guess that it is at least for some group of setup developers - it is by no means one-size-fits-all. The question is how big this group is. Free products? Yes, there are many, but there are also a few that cost thousands of dollars. Convertion from one quite popular free product is quite easy. In fact my product extends the free one (WiX). – TAG Dec 23 '10 at 18:29
@Tim - I do take the criticism seriously. But I also see some projects that have similarly difficult market and succeeded. Besides: what do you mean by "compete"? I don't mean creating 200 people company overnight. Also the original answer misses my point: I don't want to know how hard the market is, but I want to know how to estimate my market (even if the estimate turns out to be low). – TAG Dec 23 '10 at 19:08
up vote 1 down vote

Congratulation! I have a hard life with the existing offer. I'll be more than happy to try what you have to propose.

To start, I suggest you the following book. I think it's the best book ever written on the subject of pricing and income estimation.

Strategy and Tactics of Pricing

alt text

You will figure out what to do. Good luck with your product, and please tell us what your product is, I really need it myself.

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